Silver Lining?

[Bubbles Galore]

My comment was directed more at Pat, but anyway. I don't disagree that we are in a recession. Now what? Should I just sit around and hope that people will come to my wash and spend money. I can't change the way things are, but what I won't do is sit around and 'hope' things get better. I need to go out there and be as positive and as 'pie in the sky' as I can be. Understanding and making intelligent business decisions is always a good philosophy and I can' argue with you on that point. All I am saying is that I won't sit around and drown myself in all the sorrow that everyone is talking about right now.

 

[ted mcmeekin]

In our case, 2008 revenue was the same as 2006, albeit down from 2007. The total difference was the great Jan/Feb weather in 2007. As noted a while back we have decided to refinance with lower rate and longer term as a contingency against future off sales months but plan and hope we can continue same paydown rate. This peace of mind will cost us modest closing costs minus reduced interest (about 1/2 %). We are in location with no competition so increasing market share is not an option and local economy seems flat. IMO stimulus packages won't improve economy, business's getting leaner and meaner (more competitive) will. Good luck to everyone working through this.

Ted

 

[Greg Pack]

The mainstream media is usually behind the curve on things such as the true state of the economy. I started paying attention to other fairly apolitical economic/traders websites a couple of years ago. Most of them offered pretty compelling arguments for the stock market and real estate corrections we have experienced. They have been right so far.

My feelings is the MSM will continue with a bad newsflow on the economy until our new president takes the oath, then we'll see an improvement in the attitude of the newsflow. Free ponies for everyone- all hail Obama!

I think lower gas prices may help us more than the general economic conditions hurts us. I hope they stay low. We still have low unemployment in my area, and we weren't really part of the RE bubble phenomenon. RE have stagnated but the bottom hasn't fallen out. Houses in my area are still affordable relative to income. But I don't think we'll see the bull market in stocks or real estate coming back for years.

 

[Waxman]

Good posts!

Just had a great weekend of carwashing here in the Northeast!

Detail shop is busy, too!

Yeeeehaw!

 

[MEP001]

Just had a great weekend of carwashing here in the Northeast!

As far as car washing is concerned, I still don't see the economy's effect on it. The weather was nice for a full week around the 1st, and we were as busy as can be.

I've also noticed lately a lot of people at the wash with temp tags on a new (or "new to them") vehicle.

 

[Waxman]

I agree; if the economy were as big a factor as some say, my detail shop would show major signs of slowdown with its much higher price point than carwash. However, 2008 was my best year on record for detailing in 13+years.

 

[pitzerwm]

Doug, in this case most of what you say is correct, but IMO you destroyed your credibility with many post in the past, where you "quoted" total BS links and posts that a 3 year old couldn't/wouldn't buy. So as you know it will take time to re-establish your post's validity.

Even now, there are areas and industries that are not in recession, the point here is that you can create your own recession and demise or you can avoid or minimize the problems around you. i.e. "one man's trash is another man's treasure". My point and many others is, not being naive, and not stewing in negativity which you appear to do.

 

[Ben's Car Wash]

Well Bill Health care and my heart unit is very busy! We opened a third cath lab last week and I have more work than I have hours to work or sleep.... they want us to work MANITORY OVERTIME! So yes not all business are in recession, or at least not all sectors as many privite, for profit hospital are closing (I read can forward those articles to you as I read them a few days ago, HMA, HCA laying off 100 excutives). The local HMA has a 30% occupancy rate, where as we are 95+.

Thursdays news of 524,000 job losses in Dec. made for the largest loss of jobs in 2008 since 1945 of 2.6M jobs. Under Bush this nation in 8 year added 3 million jobs compared to Clinton in his 8 year term of 21 million! Now can someone please tell me how republican philophy in economics is good for business? Again Bill, in the past 3-4 years... maybe long now, the ONLY SECTOR with JOB GROWTH has been HEALTH CARE! Even defence has shrunk.

 

[Ben's Car Wash]

But here is the scarest part, Jan, Feb and March will likely shed far greater jobs then Dec. Credit card defaults will rise also. The actual unemployement rate is not 7.2% because it is reported as the U-3 unemployement rate that was changed in 1995 under Clinton when it was historically reported ats the U-6 which is currently at 13.2%! So yes the MEDIA doesn't report JACK-$hit correctly and most people have no idea how or where to get the news from. Actually the other day I was talking to a co-worker about artilces writen in PLAYBOY, Rolling Stone and a female co-worker looked at me like I was a pervert.... she doesn't know that the actual investigative reporting and journeistic side is better than most if not all US domestic news at this time. And yes, I think the PORN industry is entitled to a bailout, as much as the automotive industry! And, for that fact, no US citizen spoke more for the first ammendment more than Larry Flint (who said he knows he's a sleeze ball). So, I'm no fan of PORN, no fan of Larry Flint's profession.... but like how he pushes the envolope and exposes hypocrisy!

 

[Greg Pack]

Doug, Comparing jobs from administration to administration is political partisanship that doesn't stand up to much scrutiny.

Tell me what Bush did to directly cause those job losses.

Tell me what Clinton did to directly create all those jobs.

Clinton was the lucky SOB that happened to be president during the greatest technical innovation of the past century-the internet. A recession is inevitable after an enormous boom like that. IMO, Bush failed for being fiscally liberal- if he had practiced conservative economic policy the country would have had it's normal cyclical downturn in the early 2000s and by now would have rebounded. . Most any president that was from the two major parties would be in the same position right now, because I believe they would have followed a similar path. The American people won't tolerate a cyclical economy. That is like a cancer patient that refuses chemotherapy because it will make him nauseous.

Now, Obama has already come out and said "expect trillion dollar deficits for several years to come". My bet is the world will not continue to fund our deficit spending for the unforeseeable future. But McCain had already indicated he would follow a similar path- so from an economic standpoint it made no difference who got elected. Neither party will fix this because in the short term the solution will be very painful. But sometime within our lifetimes I believe the system will collapse, then maybe we can put the pieces back together.

 

[pitzerwm]

CF, how did you get so smart?? Oh, by not getting hung up on the crap coming from people with an agenda! How silly of me.